Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak surprised no one by winning a fifth term in office by a large margin, perhaps winning 80% of the vote. Typical overviews from the
Financial Times, and the
New York Times. Everyone agrees that fraud and manipulation were widespread. At a charitable interpretation, Egypt is reviving an imperfect democracy that was mobibund for a very long time, glitches such as fraud are to be expected. Mubarak probably would have won a completely free and open vote. But as we saw in Ukraine last year, its what happens after manipulated elections happen that is sometimes most interesting. No coincidence that one of
Mubarak's opponents chose orange as his campaign color, an explicit reference to the "Orange Revolution" that eventually toppled the apparent winner of Ukraine's rigged election. I don't think you'll see a replay of Ukraine in Egypt: in Ukraine the fraud clearly swung the outcome of the election, in Egypt most Egyptians assume ubarak would have won anyhow; the opposition to the government in Ukraine was able to unite behind a single candidate, Yushchenko, while the Egyptian opposition is badly fragmented; and Ukraine came under heavy pressure from the EU and eventually moderate pressure from the US to rerun the election, the US isn't going to do that with Egypt.
But this election will have consequences inside Egypt, in the Arab world, and in the future. The excellent
Middle East Media Research Institute translates
coverage from the Egyptian press, some of it quite critical of Mubarak and his government. Check out the "Arabic CNN"
al-Jazeera for a taste of the news being beamed to Arab countries around the region. The former Israeli ambassador to Egypt probably has it right when he
writes: "a process has begun, and it is doubtful whether the train can now be stopped. Mubarak will have to keep his promises, of further democratization, and an improved economy."
A look at the modern electoral history of Egypt:
- 1922-52: Egypt is ruled by a king and parliament. British influence is strong, and the king interferes in politics, but elections are free. Political scientists regard this as Egypt's only experience of real democracy.
- 1952: King Farouk overthrown by military group called the Free Officers.
- 1953: Free Officers proclaim a republic, dissolve political parties and appoint Gen. Mohammed Naguib as president.
- 1954: Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's leading Islamist group, is banned. Naguib is ousted and effectively replaced by Gamal Abdel Nasser, the leading Free Officer.
- 1956: Nasser elected president in a referendum in which he is the only candidate.
- 1957: Parliament restored but as a rubber-stamp institution.
- 1970: Nasser dies, succeeded by Vice-President Anwar Sadat.
- 1976: Sadat reintroduces political parties but under strict controls.
- 1981: Sadat assassinated by Islamic militants. Vice-President Hosni Mubarak, a former air force commander, succeeds.
- 1983-87: Mubarak allows limited political liberalization. Elections still rigged, but opposition increases its share of parliament. Newspapers criticize the government.
- 1992-97: Islamic insurgency erupts. Political control strengthened, reforms halted.
- 2005: Mubarak introduces multi-candidate elections for president, seen as response to U.S. calls for democracy in Egypt.
Source: Associated Press 7 September 2005
