Iraq: Constitutional Maneuvers

STRATFOR
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF
10.04.2005


Iraq: Constitutional Maneuvers

Summary

Iraq's Sunni Arabs, the United Nations and the United States raised objections Oct. 4 to the move by Iraq's interim legislature to change the rules regarding the Oct. 15 referendum on the proposed Iraqi constitution. As a result of these objections, Iraq's Shia and Kurds likely will be pushed into making concessions on the thorny issue of federalism and/or the rules governing the referendum. In any case, the continuing negotiations involving Washington and Iraq's Shia, Kurds and Sunni Arabs eventually will lead to the constitution's Oct. 15 ratification.
Analysis
Iraq's Transitional National Assembly (TNA) issued an interpretative ruling Oct. 1 defining what constitutes a voter, and how many such voters are required to approve and/or reject Iraq's proposed constitution. The TNA said that for the referendum to pass, only half of those who actually turn out to vote would need to select "yes," but for the charter to be defeated, two-thirds of registered voters in three provinces would have to vote "no."

The TNA move has united Iraq's Sunni Arabs, Washington and the United Nations in opposition.

Ayad al-Samarraie, a senior official in the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party, referred to the move as "fraud" and said it constitutes a means of preventing the Sunnis from rejecting the charter. Saleh al-Mutlaq -- a key Sunni member of the parliamentary commission that drafted the constitution, but who later opposed the final text -- said Sunni Arabs could boycott the referendum because the new voting rules make the constitution plebiscite an exercise in futility. Meanwhile, Jose Aranaz, a legal adviser to the U.N. electoral team in Iraq, said, "We have expressed our position to the Transitional National Assembly and to the leadership of the interim government and told them that the decision that was taken was not acceptable and would not meet international standards."

In response to the criticism, Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of Parliament, said Oct. 4, "The Americans and the United Nations ... don't agree with the referendum law, and there are consultations between them and Iraqi parliamentarians to find a new formula." Othman added that a new formula could be agreed on by Oct. 5, and that it would go to the legislature for a new vote.

Considering the intense opposition to the TNA's move, it is likely that the Shiite- and Kurdish-dominated interim legislature will have to alter its decision. And ongoing negotiations regarding the proposed constitution probably will result in a last-minute agreement leading to the charter's Oct. 15 passage -- something that will require a concession on the voting rules or on the issue of federalism, or on both.

On the same day the TNA ruled on the voting law, another major crack opened in the Iraqi political system -- this time between the Shia and the Kurds -- when Iraq's Kurdish president, Jalal Talabani, called for the removal of its Shiite prime minister, Ibrahim Jaafari. Talabani accused the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which holds a majority in Parliament, of failing to distribute government positions fairly to Kurds, of neglecting ministries run by Kurdish officials and of refusing to move ahead on the resettlement of Kurds in the northern city of Kirkuk. Azad Jundiyani, a spokesman for Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, said the UIA and the Kurdish alliance needed to consider having Jaafari resign, but did not say how the Kurds would react if the demand was not met.

The prime minister can be removed by a vote of no-confidence, requiring a simple majority vote in Parliament -- but the Shia hold some 150 seats in the 275-member body, making such a majority unlikely. Jawad al-Maliki, a Shiite legislator and a leader in al-Jaafari's Hizb al-Dawah, denounced the Kurdish move. Jaafari himself responded by saying that he did not have the time to respond to the president's comments, as he was currently busy discharging his duties as premier. He said he would issue a rejoinder "forcefully" at the appropriate time. While on a visit to Prague, Czech Republic, Talabani sought to play down his earlier comments, saying, "We don't think this is the time to change the government now."

This development follows Shiite, Kurdish, and Sunni Arab negotiators in back-channel meetings facilitated by the United States, who have begun examining some half-a-dozen "additional refinements" to the draft constitution. Amendments to the charter were possible until the very last minute, or at least until the draft was printed in local newspapers. Humam Hamudi, a Shiite and constitutional committee chairman, said one proposal called for referring to Iraq as a "united country" and that this "unity was guaranteed by the constitution." He said a second proposal calls for making both Arabic and Kurdish official languages in the northern Kurdish region, instead of just Kurdish. A third, more controversial proposal, has to do with new autonomous regions subject to two-thirds approval of Parliament rather than just a simple majority.

Ultimately, the Sunnis are sure they can defeat the charter, but neither are the Shia and Kurds confident of victory. Perhaps the most worried party in this entire fiasco is the United States, which wants to keep the process going so the Dec. 15 polls elect a permanent legislature, giving rise to a permanent coalition government. The Bush administration wants to be able to demonstrate such a victory for consumption on the home front and to facilitate bringing some troops home.

The intense discussions taking place will either lead to a deal where the Sunnis will not seek to defeat the charter in the Oct. 15 vote, or alternatively, if they still insist on defeating the constitution, the charter will manage to pass anyway.The internal divisions within the community, lack of organization and confusion stemming from eleventh hour talks will prevent the Sunnis from gathering the required votes to torpedo the charter. Regardless of how the constitutional referendum plays out, the Sunnis will move quickly to participate in the Dec. 15 general elections.